Here we go again. Getting back to work on my day off. It is the Fourth of July. Independence Day…
Today we celebrate the birth of this great nation and the system that we enjoy. So I will use the time to catch up on some things and assess where the market stands at the beginning of the second half of 2012. Yesterday was a long post so I will keep it short today. I thought it important to emphasize that I don’t sell stock picks or give professional advice. There is too much competition in that service. I teach stock market study for understanding the world in order to improve our lives. The better you understand the market and the world, the better you can pick your own stocks, live a better life and so much more…
So today I will be looking at the market, the big picture and then I will take the time to look at some of the little details too. I will be looking at the numbers and trends. I will look at the stock market indexes, treasury yields, the yield curve, commodity prices, shipping indices, gold, oil, story stocks, international markets, leading indicators, lagging indicators and whatever else I have time for. Then when I leave the computer and go out into the real world for a bit, I will look at what is going on out there and that can be even more important. The cars on the road, traffic patterns, the price of gas, how many people are in the restaurant and how many people are at the local auction. This stuff is every bit as important as all that fancy technical data…
I know of many people who become successful by getting a fancy Ivy League education and studying the markets from the data side but I know just as many who have become successful by observing and participating…
Yesterday I spoke to the owner of a gas station where I got gas. A nice friendly conversation always helps the day go better. I asked him if he had been busy. He said yesterday was slow and so was the previous weekend. Anecdotal evidence? Sure. But when I look at the market indexes and the shipping indexes and some other fancy technical data, I see the same thing in those advanced technical charts that he sees in his store. Some call this type of thing an “interview” or a “channel check” and they pay big bucks for it. I call it being friendly and observing the world. Whatever you call it, it is a good way to start to look at what is happening out there where all that fancy data comes from…
So enjoy your Independence Day and while you are out there doing what you do, enjoying the fireworks, enjoying a nice meal or just catching up on some things. Greet someone you are doing business with and see how things are going for them these days. Enjoy a nice friendly conversation and remember, what they tell you is every bit as important as what those fancy charts tell you. Have fun with it!